Minyanville professor Fil Zucchi has posted another...

Minyanville professor Fil Zucchi has posted another stunning chart on Credit Default Swaps of homebuilders. Homebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-11-19click on chart for a sharper imageFor Comparison Purposes here are the last two charts. Homebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-11-08click on chart for a sharper imageHomebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-09-25click on chart for a sharper imageChanges Since September 25 BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Back in march, Standard Pacific, Beazer Homes, Hovnanian all had CDS spreads at 200+ basis points. Currently Lennar is deteriorating at a very fast rate. Is this due to its mothball strategy? For more on this idea please see Lennar's Whatever the reason, it seems likely that Standard Pacific, Beazer Homes, and Hovnanian have all reached the point of no return. In addition, Meritage and Lennar are rapidly losing ground on a percentage-wise basis. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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2006-08-28Today's Thought of the Day starts with an idea...

2006-08-28Today's Thought of the Day starts with an idea posted by Kevin Depew at Minyanville. It continues with my thoughts on the implications of this abrupt shift in consumer psychology. Those implications are massive. Read on and see why. From Kevin:It begins as a simple standoff. The bidders hold their bids. The sellers hold their offers. Activity lurches to a stop... until someone blinks. Of course, I'm talking about real estate, right? No. I'm talking about restaurants. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? It continues with my thoughts on the implications of this abrupt shift in consumer psychology. Those implications are massive. Read on and see why. It begins as a simple standoff. The bidders hold their bids. The sellers hold their offers. Activity lurches to a stop... until someone blinks. In the face of a meltdown in same-store sales and falling customer counts, some of the
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All eyes were on the Fed's FOMC statement on Wednesday...

All eyes were on the Fed's FOMC statement on Wednesday as if it meant anything. In reality, the statement was irrelevant for the simple reason that no one can possibly believe a thing the committee says. The Action: The Fed cut by 1/4 point in spite of a GDP that came in as a surprise. The Reaction: The dollar sank, oil and gold hit new highs. Those stuck in ARMs did not benefit at all. Mortgage rates are still higher than they were a year ago in spite of a total of 75 basis points (.75%) cuts by the Fed and an additional 50 basis point (.50%) cut in the discount rate. The stock market gyrated wildly but settled pretty much where it was before the announcement. The sad thing is that no one can possibly believe the reasons the Fed gives for what it does. The Fed seems more inclined to wordsmith what the market expects rather than do what needs to be done. Reasons can be made up along the way. It's pretty clear that's exactly what happen. So much for transparency. The committ
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Let's take a look at a point counterpoint discussion of inflation. The October...

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