Ipoh Forex | Ipoh Forex Broker | Ipoh Forex Trading

Let's play a game. The game is called 'Agree or Disagree'.To play this game we will look at a lengthy article by Steve Roach enh1d On the Road to Global Rebalancing. In italics are paragraphs or statements by Stephen Roach. My responses are in normal print. Here goes:It was exactly six years ago when I first coined the term, “Global Rebalancing.” The equity bubble had burst, America was heading into recession, and an unbalanced, US-centric global economy was in trouble. A rebalancing was in order, I argued at the time -- and the sooner the better! AgreeAn unbalanced world was able to buy time. With the benefit of hindsight, it is not that difficult to figure out how. Fearful of a Japanese style deflation in the aftermath of a burst equity bubble, America’s Federal Reserve rushed to the rescue -- spearheading a massive monetary easing that pushed short-term interest rates down to the unheard of 1% threshold. That prompted a seamless move from one asset bubble to another, as

Let's take a look at a point counterpoint discussion of inflation. The October 8 2007 issues of Newsweek provides the point: There's No Inflation (If You Ignore Facts). BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Let's take a look at a point counterpoint discussion of inflation. The October 8 2007 issues of Newsweek provides the point: In the first eight months of 2007, the consumer price index—the main gauge of inflation—rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate. That's more than 50 percent higher than the mild 2.3 percent core rate. The prices of energy and food are soaring, at 12.7 percent and 5.6 percent annual rates, respectively, and have been doing so for years. As a result, the CPI—including food and energy—has risen 12.6 percent since July 2003, for a compound rate of about 3 percent. Signs of inflation are evident throughout the economy. When investors fear a rising inflationary tide,

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The lawsuit arose when Leegin Creative Leather stopped shipping its Brighton tooled-leather accessories to Dallas-area shop Kay's Kloset because the store was selling the goods more cheaply than Leegin wanted. After Leegin cut the store off, PSKS, parent of Kay's Kloset, filed an antitrust lawsuit. Burlington Coat Factory, which filed a brief supporting PSKS, worries about the impact on the off-price chain. Burlington attorney Stacy John Haigney called the decision 'an open invitation to manufacturers and full-price retailers to fix retail prices at a higher level. It will be detrimental to our business, but I really can't tell how much.' The Consumer Electronics Association says it supports the court decision because, it says, 'sales training, industry marketing and after-sales service' are what many TV and audio gear buyers look f

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Short sellers are betting against U. S. stocks like never before as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index approaches an all-time high. That's making some of the biggest bulls even more optimistic. 'What the short seller appears to be doing is doubling down,' said Kenneth Fisher, who oversees about $40 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments in Woodside, California. 'You love to see it, because if you believe there is a basic driver to the bull market, they're going to get run over.' The amount of shorting -- where traders sell borrowed stocks expecting to buy them back after prices fall -- jumped to 3.1 percent of the total shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange this month. That's the highest since at least 1931, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a research firm in Mamaroneck, New York. The wagers represent billio

I asked Madame Zalora what she thought of Centex's latest sales pitch. Her Crystal Ball replied a sarcastic 'big deal'.Her more detailed response (that I had to pay extra for) was:A 30-40 day price guarantee? Who cares? Besides that is listing price which is unlikely to move as much as discounted prices and incentives. She also admonished me.'You really did not need a crystal ball to answer that, now did you?''How long will it be before they give a one year price guarantee?' I responded.'Sorry, Madame Zalora only answers one question a day per customer' was all she said. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. com/

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? For almost thirty years, count them, for almost thirty years people like you have predicted that our economy will collapse and the end of the consumer. Throughout all of those years, it didn't happen. No matter how many logical arguments the 'gloom and doom' crowd has made, it hasn't happened. Nimesh, I have only been on the deflation bandwagon for a few years, not thirty. However, you are correct about one thing: Some notable people have indeed been calling for a collapse for nearly thirty years. However, that does mean an economic collapse One of the reasons the Fed was created was to manage the economy and prevent further depressions. Guess What? The biggest deflation in history, the great depression, happened 17 years later. At one time economists thought that inflation and recession could not happen at the same time. It happened anyway. A

Walking away is becoming increasingly popular. The practice has now spread to commercial real estate. Michael Dell of Dell Computers is the latest walker. He is walking away from a sweetheart call centre deal in Edmonton Canada. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Dell Canada is closing its Edmonton call centre after only three years, putting more than 900 people out of work. The computer giant said the move was part of company-wide efforts to 'increase the efficiency of its business, improve performance and provide better value for customers.' Dell was lured to Edmonton by a 20-year sweetheart lease deal at Edmonton Research Park, and has consistently touted the call centre as a top-performing global facility. The deal with Edmonton Economic Development Corp. included a $1-a-year lease on 15 acres of land, and a property tax rebate worth $1.1 million. It becomes void if the number of em

For some weekend fun please consider point 2 of last Wednesday's Five Things Sallie Mae CEO Just Wants to 'Get the F*ck Outta Here!' BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? First, Sallie Mae (SLM) CEO Albert Lord told investors in a pretty defensive conference call that an increase in borrowing costs would hurt the company's profit growth. Lord said that as a result of the failure of the $25.3 billion J. C. Flowers deal to go through, the company will need to raise capital despite the higher cost. 'We're trying to put together projections together here, Al,' one questioner said. 'We're trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth and you've got to give us some guidance.' Let's cut to the chase. We're no public relations expert, but here's a tip: It's probably not a good idea to close out a particularly testy investor call by sa

The key to what happens at the October FOMC meeting is likely to depend on jobs. Before we take a look at what might transpire later this month, here is a quick recap of recent Fed actions:In August the Fed surprised the market with a 50 basis point cut in the discount rate on options expirations Friday. The Fed then followed up with a surprise 50 basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate at the September meeting. The market was only expecting a quarter point cut. A tremendous rally in equities worldwide ensued. Nothing Fundamentally Has Changed.

I have been wondering what GM is worth. One measure is book value and that is currently sitting at $27.27.GM is also sitting outright on $33.28 in cash per share as the following chart shows. Aren't companies supposed to be a great buy at book value? Perhaps, but what if book value is exaggerated? Let's dissect GM's latest annual report and see what we can find. Balance SheetRight off the bat we see that assets minus liabilities show GM to be worth approximately $15 billion. With various small adjustments the annual report shows shareholder equity to be $14.597 billion. That is yet another possible answer for what GM is worth. But wait a second. What about all of those footnotes? What do they mean? Please consider Note 15.The above is only a portion of Note 15, but the part that is of the most interest. The actual report has other asset categories and the total of all of them is indeed 58,086 as shown in the first chart. The figure to make note of is pension assets of 37,57

This post is for commodity traders as well as people who use the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for other uses. Even if you do not trade commodities or use the COT reports you may find this post interesting so please read on. The first message is by Minyanville professor Bennet Sedacca. The second post is by Minyanville professor John Succo. Kevin Kerr has a few comments for everyone as do I. Here goes. From Bennet Sedacca:The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) has indicated that they may stop publishing the COT (Commitment of Traders) report, pending input from the public by August 20th. Pepe wrote on this a while back and I use and have used this data with great success over the years. In fact, I usually Buzz each Monday and it played a HUGE role in me being out of stocks during the bear of 2000-2002.They have already gotten rid of M3, one of the other most important pieces of data that we use as traders and investors (both individual and institutions).Do I still live

I have received several questions recently about my statement 'The problem with using M2 or M3 as a measure of money is that both include credit transactions.' (See Is the Fed Deflating? for the source of the question)From HBR: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Why do you say there are credit components in M2? It looks to me like it is only physical currency, bank accounts, money markets, and CD's. None of those are credit. M2: M1 + most savings accounts, money market accounts, and small denomination time deposits (certificates of deposit of under $100,000). 'M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds, less IRA a

Most people have unanswered questions on their minds. Not me. Right now I have two answered questions on my mind. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Sales of CDOs worldwide have soared since 2004, reaching $503 billion last year, a fivefold increase in three years, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. CDO holdings have already declined in value between $18 billion and $25 billion because of falling repayment rates by subprime U. S. mortgage holders, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. estimated on April 13. In many cases, investors don't even know that values have dropped. In this secretive market, there is no easy way for them to find out what their CDOs are worth. The three leading rating companies, all based in New York, say that policing CDOs isn't their job. S&P, which controls 40 percent [of the market], asks investors in its published CDO ratings not to base any investment

Caroline Baum had an interesting take on Greenspan's new book 'The Age of Turbulence' in Memoir Shows Dangers of Irrational Book Advances. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? For someone who made headlines with his every utterance -- even if no one could agree on what he had said -- Alan Greenspan offers few newsmaking moments in his eagerly awaited memoir, 'The Age of Turbulence'. Sure, his criticisms of the Bush administration (for its 'out-of-control spending'), Republicans in Congress (they 'lost their way,' 'swapped principle for power' and 'ended up with neither') and the Iraq War ('largely about oil') provided weekend fodder for the media. While Greenspan calls his book a detective story, there isn't much in the way of suspense. Greenspan's words are as measured as they were in his communications as Fed chairman. Now as t

Irwin Stelzer for the Times Online totally blows it with his analysis of the housing collapse. The headline Search for a scapegoat finds Greenspan sums it up nicely. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? WITH investors having lost the odd trillion in recent weeks, the hunt is on for a scapegoat. Washington pundits are not famous for their kindness to politicians, regulators and other out-of-power figures to whom they no longer crave access. So it should come as no surprise that Alan Greenspan has been nominated as the culprit, and that the process of chipping away at the pedestal on which he stands has begun. The first attack on Greenspan was one of those indirect, by-implication-only assaults in which government officials specialise. William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, used a speech to property professionals to unburden himself of some thoughts on the nonprime mortga

In the blink of an eye, the yield curve is inverted once again. The panic that drove 1 month treasury yields to 1.4% started to subside in the wake of many unusual statements made by major banks about the discount window (see Now we know who and why), and continued to subside in the wake of many rules changes by the Fed (See Mr. Practical's Buzz on 'New Rules').But the inversion never really went away if one measures it from the perspective of the official Fed Fund's Rate. With the FF rate sitting at 5.25% there is an inversion of 85+- basis points on the five year treasury note. Mortgage watchers will note an inversion of 65+- basis points on the 10 year treasury note by that measure. Although the Fed may have calmed some nerves with options expiration shenanigans and by inventing 'New Rules' on the fly, Countrywide (CFC) is once again trading back around $20 (having risen to as high as $26 after hours on the so called Bank of America Bailout of Countrywide Bai

According to the Wall Street Journal Moody's Says It Is Taking Hit for its tough stance on lending standards. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Moody's Investors Service says it is paying a high price for its tough stance on lax lending standards for commercial mortgage-backed securities. In a new report that assesses the status of the market, the Moody's Corp. unit said it was passed over and not hired for 75% of the commercial mortgage-backed securities rating assignments issued in the past few months as a result of its requirement that issuers add an extra layer of credit enhancement. Moody's said issuers are 'rating shopping' -- meaning they were hiring competitors that would hand out higher ratings on securities. Because Moody's makes money rating... It is absolutely laughable for Moody's to claim it is taking a tough stance on ratings. For starters all of

Minyanville professor Fil Zucchi has posted another stunning chart on Credit Default Swaps of homebuilders. Homebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-11-19click on chart for a sharper imageFor Comparison Purposes here are the last two charts. Homebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-11-08click on chart for a sharper imageHomebuilder Credit Default Swaps 2007-09-25click on chart for a sharper imageChanges Since September 25 BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Back in march, Standard Pacific, Beazer Homes, Hovnanian all had CDS spreads at 200+ basis points. Currently Lennar is deteriorating at a very fast rate. Is this due to its mothball strategy? For more on this idea please see Lennar's Whatever the reason, it seems likely that Standard Pacific, Beazer Homes, and Hovnanian have all reached the point of no return. In addition, Meritage and Lennar are rapidly losing ground on a percentage-wise basis

When the Fed wants to set an untenable position it tends to do so with non-voting members. That is happening again today as Plosser doesn't soften hawkish tone on rates. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? When the Fed wants to set an untenable position it tends to do so with non-voting members. That is happening again today as In a speech at the University of Rochester, Plosser said the Fed cannot resolve the cause of the tension in financial markets, uncertainty over the value of complex securities tied to subprime and other mortgages and who holds these derivatives. 'It is important to recognize that the Fed cannot resolve this price discovery problem. The markets will have to figure this out,' Plosser said in his prepared remarks. 'Arbitrarily lowering interest rates or providing liquidity to the market does not provide the answers the market seeks,' Plosser said. Philade

According to Goldman, Citigroup, Merrill Face More Writedowns. Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. may write down an additional $34 billion in securities linked to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. may write down an additional $34 billion in securities linked to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Citigroup, the biggest U. S. bank, may reduce the value of its holdings by $18.7 billion in the fourth quarter and cut its dividend 40 percent, Goldman analyst William Tanona said in a Dec. 26 report on the New York-based companies. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U. S. bank, may write off $3.4 billion, double Goldman's previous estimate. Merrill Lynch &a

There are disasters in the making at WCI. Let's takes a look. On February 27th WCI reported wider-than-expected quarterly loss. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? WCI Communities Inc. a Florida upscale home and condominium builder that may put itself up for sale, on Tuesday reported a wider-than-expected quarterly net loss, amid the weak U. S. housing market. The company posted a quarterly net loss of $64.6 million, or $1.52 per share, versus a profit of $54.6 million, or $1.20 per share, in the year-earlier quarter. Excluding the impact of $118.3 million for the write-off for deteriorating values of its land holdings and residential towers, WCI's income was $6.6 million or 18 cents per share. Fourth-quarter revenue fell 37.6 percent to $526.3 million, the result of lower sales, higher cancellations of both homes and condominiums, the Bonita Springs, Florida company said. Gross margins